
Rubber prices increase sharply - Expectations of expanding market share and increasing value
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The application of digital technology in quality control, traceability, and raw material management also helps increase product value, opening up export opportunities to demanding markets
Rubber export prices increase sharply
According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, in the first quarter of 2025, Vietnam exported about 421,000 tons of rubber, earning 781 million USD. Compared to the same period in 2024, the export volume decreased slightly by nearly 3%, but the turnover increased by nearly 18%.
The most notable point is that the average export price reached 1,857 USD/ton, an increase of 29% compared to the first quarter of 2024 - the highest increase in the past 3 years. In January and February, prices increased by 25% and 32% respectively compared to the same period, before showing signs of slowing down at the end of March due to the adjustment of demand from the Chinese market.
The sharp increase in export prices not only reflects short-term supply and demand factors but also shows the shift of the world rubber market to a more sustainable supply chain.
There are many reasons affecting the upward trend in rubber prices in the first quarter of 2025: Global supply is decreasing, major producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia are facing harsh weather conditions such as unseasonal rains and prolonged drought, reducing rubber latex production. Consumption growth in Asia, the automobile market in China, India and Southeast Asia is showing signs of recovery after the pandemic. The production of tires is increasing again, leading to demand for natural rubber. Speculative factors and market psychology, investors on the Tokyo Rubber Exchange (TOCOM) and Shanghai Rubber Exchange (SHFE) are pushing up futures prices, affecting actual prices. Transportation and logistics costs have increased, although they have decreased slightly compared to 2022, but logistics costs remain high, forcing export prices to be adjusted to ensure profits.
According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, rubber prices in 2025 will continue to maintain a positive trend
Positive signals from domestic enterprises
Although China is still the main market, accounting for nearly 80% of Vietnam's total rubber exports in the first quarter of 2025, growth from new markets is a notable sign. Malaysia increased its imports of Vietnamese rubber by more than 8 times in volume and 9 times in value compared to the same period last year. India and South Korea also recorded good growth, especially in the group of mixed rubber products and SVR 10, SVR 20 rubber.
Diversifying export markets is becoming a key strategy for businesses to reduce dependence on single markets. Major rubber companies under VRG, Danang Rubber Company (DRC), and Casumina are promoting their strategy of producing processed rubber products, high-tech tires, and cooperating with electric vehicle manufacturers. DRC has just announced the successful testing of an electric tire line for VinFast, promising to open a new segment with much higher added value than exporting raw latex.
Enterprises in the industry such as VRG, DRC, Casumina, Sao Vang, etc. are focusing on a deeper value chain - from natural rubber to high-tech rubber processed products, automobile tires, and industrial rubber.
In addition, the application of digital technology in quality control, traceability, and raw material management also helps increase product value, opening up export opportunities to demanding markets such as the EU, Japan, Korea, etc.
Rubber demand is expected to increase dramatically in the third and fourth quarters of 2025
2025 Outlook: Steady Expectations
The Vietnam Rubber Association (VRA) expects that in 2025, total rubber export turnover can reach over 11 billion USD, thanks to maintaining a high price level as in the first quarter. Increase the consumption of high value-added products (SVR CV60, car tires). Expand the market to Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), rubber prices in 2025 will continue to maintain a positive trend: The average natural rubber price in 2025 may fluctuate between 1,750 - 2,000 USD/ton, depending on supply and demand and macroeconomic factors. Futures contracts on TOCOM and SHFE are currently trading around 170 - 190 JPY/kg, indicating expectations that prices will remain stable or continue to increase in the second half of the year. If China implements stimulus packages for automobile consumption and industrial production as expected, rubber demand may surge in the third and fourth quarters of 2025.
However, challenges such as exchange rate fluctuations, technical barriers from import markets and increasingly fierce competition from ASEAN countries still require the rubber industry to continue to innovate to improve competitiveness.
The first quarter of 2025 confirms a positive start for the Vietnamese rubber industry. With the proactive transformation of enterprises and positive signals from the world market, the rubber industry has every basis to aim for a breakthrough year in both value and quality of development.
Source: CSVN